引用元:https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-spacecraft-trailing-us-spy-satellite-space-force-commander-report-2020-2
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Something to potentially watch: Cosmos 2542, a Russian inspection satellite, has recently synchronized its orbit with USA 245, an NRO KH11.
— Michael Thompson (@M_R_Thomp) January 30, 2020
A thread: pic.twitter.com/LqvYiIYBMd
注目すべきは、ロシアの偵察衛星 「コスモス2542」 がNRO KH11の 「USA245」 と軌道を同期させたことです。
Prior to its most recent set of maneuvers, it was still in the same plane as USA 245, but its period was offset such that there were only relatively close passes every 11-12 days.
— Michael Thompson (@M_R_Thomp) January 30, 2020
(Note that any two satellites in the same plane with offset periods will have passes like this at some regular cadence. It's enough to raise suspicion, but not prove anything.)
— Michael Thompson (@M_R_Thomp) January 30, 2020
The most recent close approach took place on January 21st, but instead of then drifting away as usual, Cosmos 2542 performed a series of maneuvers on the 20th, 21st, 22nd, and 23rd to match the period of USA 245. pic.twitter.com/jSMsytae4X
— Michael Thompson (@M_R_Thomp) January 30, 2020
The periods are now less than 1 second apart, meaning that Cosmos 2542 is loitering around USA 245 in consistent view. As I'm typing this, that offset distance shifts between 150 and 300km depending on the location in the orbit. pic.twitter.com/C3fGKwfaLL
— Michael Thompson (@M_R_Thomp) January 30, 2020
Although the range oscillates, the relative orbit is phased such that the closest distance is when the satellites are in sunlight (i.e. visible to optical observation) and the furthest distance is when both satellites are in eclipse.
— Michael Thompson (@M_R_Thomp) January 30, 2020
The relative orbit is actually pretty cleverly designed, where Cosmos 2542 can observe one side of the KH11 when both satellites first come into sunlight, and by the time they enter eclipse, it has migrated to the other side. pic.twitter.com/zaEBZJhFaO
— Michael Thompson (@M_R_Thomp) January 30, 2020
As long as Cosmos 2542 has the capability to perform a slew rate of 0.1 deg/sec, which is easily obtainable with modern attitude control systems, it has had the capability to observe USA 245 consistently for the past week. pic.twitter.com/U8C6Zz1BLQ
— Michael Thompson (@M_R_Thomp) January 30, 2020
When 2542 was launched, Russia said that only Russian satellites would be inspected, but the only ones in this orbital plane are Cosmos 2523 (a previous inspection satellite), Cosmos 2543 (an earlier deployed sub-satellite), and Resurs-P1 (a commercial remote sensing satellite).
— Michael Thompson (@M_R_Thomp) January 30, 2020
While they are in the same plane, the passes are typical of any two satellites in the same plane: taking place at a distance of a few hundred km every few days. Not in consistent view, and the most recent maneuvers did nothing to improve the viewing geometry with any of these.
— Michael Thompson (@M_R_Thomp) January 30, 2020
Personally, I think the intelligence value of observations of optical spy satellites like this one are probably marginal. Their mirror dimensions are publicly known, and from there, it's just basic optics to calculate approximate capabilities.
— Michael Thompson (@M_R_Thomp) January 30, 2020
This is all circumstantial evidence, but there are a hell of a lot of circumstances that make it look like a known Russian inspection satellite is currently inspecting a known US spy satellite.
— Michael Thompson (@M_R_Thomp) January 30, 2020
トンプソンさんのツイートに対するコメント
2: 真剣な匿名さん
3: 真剣な匿名さん
4: 真剣な匿名さん
それともその距離のシャッターを実際に見ることができるのか?
5: 真剣な匿名さん
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